During the next 5 years, the logistics industry is going to go through some painful times. One of the biggest concerns is going to be trucking capacity. Drivers are getting older, and younger people just do not see driving a truck as a good job. Add in the CSA that is going to take many drivers out of the cabs.
Right now we are just barely at the right capacity, but 2012-2014 we will see it drop. This means rates will have to go up, simply because it will be hard to keep drivers. We will also have to deal with the new fuel efficiency standards, which will drive up the costs of new equipment.
The railroads are making a solid play to handle more opportunities, that will be coming because of shortened capacity. Inter-modal will be a large part of their services. Many new projects have been in the works to allow for quicker delivery of the inter-modal containers, from more tracks to heightening of their tunnels to allow for double stack trains.
The perfect plan would be that the economy will have a very strong recovery, and there by increase demand. However this is an imperfect world. We have many things that may change the game. Inflation will be a concern, which may mean less demand for just in time inventory management and buyers looking to go to hedge position to not take as big of a hit on inflation.
Another possible concern which can be considered catastrophic, is if the US Dollar will no longer be considered the reserve currency. That is all commodities right now are traded in us dollars, if that changes say to the euro, or yuan, we will see hyper inflation. That will take decades to get out of, if ever.
So as you can see the future maybe good, or very bad. 20 years ago the industry was very different, then compared to today's lean method. We however can see that some of the problems that can happen, with just in time. Japan imports right now are becoming harder to get, to the point that Toyota has told their dealerships to not order parts unless they are absolutely needed.
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